Second of all, I'll have to explain how I'll calculate their stats. Well, it goes like this:
Here are some symbols: / = divide, * = multiplication
And We need some variables for easier calculation.
A = the difference between upgrade 1 and upgrade 2 attack value, multiplied by 0.05.
B = the difference between upgrade 1 and upgrade 2 defense value, multiplied by 0.05.
C = the average damage ratio of the two upgrades (average damage = (min damage + max damage) / 2)
D = the HP ratio of the two upgrades.
Now, the first thing is to recalculate A and B as the following (applies to both):
if it is a negative value (upgrade 1 att (A) or def (B) is LOWER than upgrade 2), then we make it positive (reverse the sign), add 1 and then calculate the reciprocal of it (1/[A or B]) and that's the new A or B.
if it is a positive value (upgrade 1 att (A) or def (B) is GREATER than upgrade 2), we just add 1.
After we calculate those new A and B values, the following operations follow: A * B * C * D
Let's name the result E.
Now we have to calculate the initiative. A simple Initiative/10 multiplier to the above equation would not be correct, since 10% extra initiative is BETTER than 10% extra damage. I mean, with more initiative, you act more. Acting more can provide you with more damage, but it's better since you can also move more, and perform different actions than just simple damaging the same target.
So, by the logic of Luck vs Morale (double damage versus 50% faster acting), acting more has a 2/1.5 = 1.33 greater effect than simple "more damage".
Therefore, to bring Initiative into equation, we need two more variables:
In case Initiative is above 10:
F = ((Initiative of upgrade 1) / 10 - 1) * 1.33 + 1
G = ((Initiative of upgrade 2) / 10 - 1) * 1.33 + 1
In case Initiative is below 10:
F = 1 / ((10 / (Initiative of upgrade 1) - 1) * 1.33 + 1)
G = 1 / ((10 / (Initiative of upgrade 2) - 1) * 1.33 + 1)
After this, we simply do: E * (F / G) -> let's name the result X.
This X represents the pure raw power (without abilities!) upgrade 1 has over upgrade 2. If it is ABOVE 1, then we simply say that it's ((X-1)*100)% better. So, if X = 1.5, upgrade 1 is 50% better than upgrade 2 (in raw power -> without abilities). If X = 2, it's 100% (twice) as effective, and so on...
If X is BELOW 1, it means that upgrade 2 is better than 1. We need to do the reciprocal (1/X) and then, with the result, say the same thing as above, only that this time upgrade 1 is inferior in raw power. So, if X = 0.8, 1/X = 1.25 which means that upgrade 2 is 25% better than upgrade 1. If X = 0.5, 1/X = 2 which means upgrade 2 is 100% (twice) as effective than upgrade 1. For an X of 0.25, 1/X = 4, which means upgrade 2 is 300% (four times) better than upgrade 1, and so on... (remember, without abilities)
So let's start with an example so that you'll understand better. I'll start with my favorite town, Dungeon, so the example will be based on Assassin vs Stalker.
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Creature Attack Defense Damage HitPoints Speed Initiative
Assassin 4 3 2-4 14 5 12
Stalker 5 4 3-5 15 6 12
A: (4 - 5) * 0.05 = -1 * 0.05 = -0.05
B: (3 - 4) * 0.05 = -1 * 0.05 = -0.05
C: 3 / 4 = 0.75
D: 14 / 15 = 0.933
Now we need to recalculate A and B. Since they're negative, we'll use the longer formula. First, we make them positive and then add 1. This leads us to an A and B equal to 1.05. Now we calculate the reciprocal: 1/1.05 = 0.952. So both A and B are equal to 0.952
E = A * B * C * D = 0.952 * 0.952 * 0.75 * 0.933 = 0.634
Since their Initiative is equal, our E becomes X (F / G = 1 in this case)
So, with this X, we can say that the Stalker is 57.5% better than the Assassin in raw power (1/X = 1.575; 1.575-1 = 0.575; 0.575*100 = 57.5)
The result is this:
Assassin Powers: Shooter. No Melee Penalty. Ranged Penalty. Poison.
Stalker Powers: 57.5% better in stats. +1 Speed. Poison. Invisibility.
I'll let you decide who is better. If you really think that the fact that the Assassin can shoot (with only half normal damage) with his Poisonous Attack is better than having 57.5% better stats, the Poisonous Attack (but only in Melee though) AND Invisibility, then go for the Assassins. But IMO I'd go for Stalkers any day.
Let's take an example with Initiative as well, and we have this for the second tier in the same town.
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Creature Attack Defense Damage HitPoints Speed Initiative
Blood Fury 5 3 5-7 16 8 16
Blood Sister 5 4 3-8 21 8 14
Now it gets interesting, we'll cover initiative. Using the formula, we have:
F = (16 / 10 - 1) * 1.33 + 1 = 1.8
G = (14 / 10 - 1) * 1.33 + 1 = 1.533
X = E * (F / G) = 0.791 * (1.8 / 1.533) = 0.791 * 1.1739 = 0.929
With this X, We can say that the Sister is 7.6% better than the Fury in raw power (1/X = 1.076; 1.076-1 = 0.076; 0.076*100 = 7.6)
The result is this:
Fury Powers: No Enemy Retaliation. Strike and Return.
Sister Powers: 7.6% better in stats. No Enemy Retaliation. Strike and Return. Immune to Weakness.
So apart from creeping I don't see the point of the Fury - the Sister has ALL abilities the Fury has, and even one more (not great, but it's still something) and also 7.6% better stats.
Ok, now that you know how to calculate, enough with the examples, I'll only show you the final X value for all creatures to help you at better understanding some upgrade choices.
DUNGEON
Minotaur Guard vs Minotaur Taskmaster
X = 0.528 -> Minotaur Taskmaster has 89.3% better stats
It's obvious which one is better, I don't think that Double Attack is that great to compensate for those better stats, not to mention Aura of Bravery is better than Bravery.
Grim Raider vs Brisk Raider
X = 0.899 -> Brisk Raider has 11.2% better stats
Rider Charge is simply an excellent ability, and I think it's truly much better than having 11.2% extra stats and the Wheeling Attack ability. Still, at least the Brisk Raider has better stats, and that's a step in the right direction;)
Deep Hydra vs Foul Hydra
X = 0.975 -> Foul Hydra has 2.4% better stats
So in this case the stats aren't a decision, but the abilities. I think the Acid Blood is far more important than Regeneration (unless we're talking about creeping abuses)
Shadow Matriarch vs Shadow Mistress
X = 0.698 -> Shadow Mistress has 43% better stats
Having 43% better stats, +1 Speed, a more useful Whip Strike AND Invisibility is far better than being able to shoot IMO, so I'd say Mistresses are better (unless you play Eruina )
Black Dragon vs Red Dragon
X = 0.986 -> The Red Dragon has 1.3% better stats
Again the stats aren't really different, the choice stands in the abilities.
HAVEN
Conscript vs Brute
X = 1 -> Identical stats in power
The choice stands between Bash and Assault, I prefer the former.
Marksman vs Crossbowman
X = 0.952 -> The Crossbowman has 5% better stats (+1 Attack )
Well, No Range Penalty already made him better than the Marksman with his Precise Shot, and on top of that Nival made him have better stats...
Squire vs Vindicator
X = 0.913 -> The Vindicator has 9.5% better stats
It's pretty much 9.5% better stats + Cleave VS Bash + Shield Allies
Imperial Griffin vs Battle Griffin
X = 1.142 -> Imperial Griffin has 14.2% better stats
Well, 14.2% better stats + Battle Dive is better than Rush Dive + Battle Frenzy IMO; not to mention that 15 initiative for the Imperials makes the "Dive"-type abilities better than with 10 Initiative (Battle Griffin)
Inquisitor vs Zealot
X = 0.916 -> Zealot has 9% better stats
Here it depends on the spells you want to use, obviously. Inquisitor has more spells, but less mana (12 vs 15). Also the Zealot has Expert Mastery to his Righteous Might spell (Inquisitor has all of them at Advanced), 9% better stats and the Purge ability. I'd say the Zealot is slightly better, but the Inquisitor is also useful at times (especially when your hero doesn't have Light Magic spells)
Paladin vs Champion
X = 1.09 -> Paladin has 9% better stats
So it's 9% better stats + Lay Hands + Immune to Frenzy VS Champion Charge. I'd take the Paladin when facing a Dark Magic user, and the Champion when there's no Frenzy/Puppet involved
ArchAngel vs Seraph
X = 1.083 -> ArchAngel has 8.3% better stats
Depends what you prefer: Divine Vengeance or Resurrect Allies. Of course, there's also important to note that Seraph is affected by Divine Strength much while the ArchAngel isn't affected at all.
INFERNO
Familiar vs Vermin
X = 1.05 -> Familiar has 5% better stats
It's basically Mana Stealer VS Siphon Mana, since actually the Vermin has +1 Speed as well (while the Familiar 5% better stats)
Horned Overseer vs Horned Grunt
X = 1.1 -> Horned Overseer has 10% better stats
Although the Overseer has 10% better stats and Explosion, Leap is stronger IMO (especially if you attack creatures who don't have any retaliation left, so that you won't receive triple retaliation damage )
Cerberus vs Firehound
X = 1.19 -> Cerberus has 19% better stats
Well I would consider Fire Breath a lot better than 19% better stats here
Succubus Mistress vs Succubus Seducer
X = 1.076 -> Succubus Mistress has 7.6% better stats
Depends if you like Chain Shot over Seduce here...
Nightmare vs Hell Stalion
X = 1.008 -> Almost identical stats
It's basically Fright Aura VS Searing Aura
Pit Lord vs Pit Spawn
X = 0.536 -> Pit Spawn has 86.2% better stats
+2 Speed, 86.2% better stats AND Magic Proof 50% are a lot better than Pit Lord's casting abilities IMO (there's also Blade of Slaughter, but Vorpal Sword for the Pit Lord as well)
ArchDevil vs ArchDemon
X = 0.971 -> ArchDemon has 2.9% better stats
The ArchDevil has +1 more Speed than the ArchDemon and Summon Pit Lords ability. The other has 2.9% extra stats and Teleport Other. Depends on the situation which is better.
NECROPOLIS
Skeleton Archer vs Skeleton Warrior
X = 0.595 -> Skeleton Warrior has 68% better stats
68% better stats, Large Shield, Shield Allies, Bash, Magic Proof 25%... all of those for the ability to shoot? Come on... I'm still wondering where all those Skeleton Archer fans come from (shooting is not great anyway, because of range penalty)
Plague Zombie vs Rot Zombie
X = 1.065 -> Plague Zombie has 6.5% better stats
As great as Rot Zombie's Aura sounds, the Plague Zombie is better IMO. Has a little more stats (6.5%) and the Weakening Strike ability is also useful.
Spectre vs Poltergeist
X = 0.989 -> The Poltergeist has 1% better stats
Here it's between the abilities, but I think Mana Drain is more useful than Ammo Steal.
Vampire Lord vs Vampire Prince
X = 0.875 -> The Vampire Prince has 14.2% better stats
This is a joke, I mean, Torpor is already better than No Enemy Retaliation IMO. It triggers a lot, and when it does, it causes No Retaliation but also some other effects (the sleep one). Not to mention Torpor also works on Retaliations, the other doesn't. And on top of this the Prince receives +1 Speed and 14.2% better stats:(
ArchLich vs Lich Master
X = 0.885 -> The Lich Master has 12.9% better stats
Well I guess the extra stats are because of the lack of Death Cloud ability, so it's a choice of spells here.
Wraith vs Banshee
X = 1.232 -> The Wraith has 23.2% better stats
If you empower Death Wail with some Morale reducing artifacts, then the Banshee could be better than the Wraith. But overall it's weaker, as you can see from the stats.
Spectral Dragon vs Horror Dragon
X = 1.015 -> The Spectral Dragon has 1.5% better stats
I think they're both pretty good. Sorrow is a lot better than Weakness, but the Spectral Dragon also has the Death Stare ability.
SYLVAN
Sprite vs Dryad
X = 0.869 -> The Dryad has 15% better stats
The spells the Sprite casts are not very good, and the Dryad has the Symbiosis ability and 15% higher stats, so I'd say the Dryad is better.
War Dancer vs Wind Dancer
X = 0.662 -> The Wind Dancer has 50% better stats
This has to be the worst balance I've seen (except Arcane Archer). Agility is already pretty IMBA and a lot stronger than war Dance Combo, and on top of this the Wind Dancer has 50% extra stats (which is A LOT) and +1 Speed!
Master Hunter vs Arcane Archer
X = 0.612 -> The Arcane Archer has 63% better stats!
As if Force Arrow wasn't strong enough, the Arcane Archer has 63% better stats. I don't think Warding Arrows and the fact that the Master Hunter deals double damage from close range compensates for 63% extra stats, and this is without mentioning the IMBA 50% defense reduction!
Druid Elder vs High Druid
X = 0.976 -> The High Druid has 2.3% better stats
Another poor balance, as if the High Druid wasn't already a lot better than the other one. The Druid Elder should receive have better stats, not the High Druid...
Silver Unicorn vs Pristine Unicorn
X = 1.058 -> the Silver Unicorn has 5.8% better stats
Here it depends on what you face and what you'd like. I say both are good.
Ancient Treant vs Savage Treant
X = 0.969 -> the Savage Treant has 3.1% better stats
It depends if you want a faster treant or an entangling one.
Emerald Dragon vs Crystal Dragon
X = 1.1 -> The Emerald Dragon has 10% better stats
IMO, the Crystal Dragon is worse: it lacks Immune to Earth and has 10% less stats. Sure, the ability can hit a lot of creatures compared to Acid Breath, but it's unreliable and it may not hit anything as well...
ACADEMY
Master Gremlin vs Gremlin Saboteur
X = 0.74 -> The Gremlin Saboteur has 34.9% better stats
Well both are useful, Repair is much better than Sabotage but as you can see the other has some better stats
Obsidian Gargoyle vs Elemental Gargoyle
X = 0.882 -> The Elemental Gargoyle has 13.3% better stats
Of course, both are useful, depends whether you have some powerful Destructive Magic spells or not.
Steel Golem vs Magnetic Golem
X = 0.964 -> The Magnetic Golem has 3.6% better stats
One has Unlimited Retaliation, 75% Magic Proof and is Immune to Slow, while the other is good at absorbing Destructive Magic spells. Depends on the situation which one is better.
ArchMage vs Battle Mage
X = 0.987 -> The Battle Mage has 1.2% better stats
The stats aren't a big difference, it's just the spells VS the ability to not hit your own adjacent creatures.
Djinn Sultan vs Djinn Vizier
X = 0.992 -> The Djinn Vizier has 0.7% better stats
The Vizier is better IMO, it has 75% Magic Proof and is Immune to Air, while the other has only 50% Magic Proof. The spell-casting ability is not that great either, seeing as Djinns are fragile and most often have to attack normally (because they also deal a lot of damage)
Rakshasa Raja vs Rakshasa Kshatra
X = 0.832 -> The Rakshasa Kshatra has 20% better stats
It's obvious that Kshatra is better. It has +1 Speed, better stats and a better ability. Yes, Whirlwind IS better than No Enemy Retaliation. Think of it like this: once you hit two creatures, you dealt DOUBLE damage. Because the Rakshasa Kshatra is a tier 6, usually it won't receive a retaliation damage higher than what it caused (unless attacking a tier 7, but still even this way the retaliation is AFTER the strike, so it won't deal "full-damage"). So it's already better than No Enemy Retaliation, not to mention that you can hit three or more creatures and that it also works on rakshasa's retaliations as well, unlike the Raja's ability.
The two Titans are identical except their abilities
FORTRESS
Shieldguard vs Mountain Guard
X = 1.053 -> the Shieldguard has 5.3% better stats
As if Shield Wall wasn't already better than Mountain Guard's abilities, the Shieldguard also has better stats it seems...
Skirmisher vs Harpooner
X = 0.857 -> The Harpooner has 16.6% better stats
Well I think both are useful. The better stats are for No Melee Penalty, and the Crippling Wound is for Harpoon Strike. However, when you have Soldier's Luck you should consider the Skirmisher more since it improves him, but not the Harpooner.
Blackbear Rider vs Whitebear Rider
X = 1 -> They have the same overall stats in power
Paw Strike triggers A LOT but Bear Roar can affect multiple enemies and also increases the bear's stats when at least one enemy is frigtened. I'd say they are both useful.
Berserker vs Battlerager
X = 1.024 -> The Berserker has 2.4% better stats
Basically it's between the abilities here, and they do differ a lot. I prefer to take the Battlerage but the Berserker can also be very effective
Rune Patriarch vs Rune Keeper
X = 0.845 -> The Rune Keeper has 18.2% better stats
I guess the extra stats are for the Crossfire ability. Still, I wouldn't rank it so high (18%) so I prefer to take the Rune Keepers (they also have two Fireballs which are better than 1 Firewall)
Flamelord vs Thunder Thane
Note that in the calculation I used double damage for the Thunder Thanes, because that's what they deal ALWAYS to the target creature. So you should consider the Storm Strike ability here that it doesn't strike the first creature!
X = 1.001 -> They're almost identical in raw power
So the choice here is between the abilities (note that in this case the Storm Strike ability does NOT affect the target creature any more, only the adjacent ones)
Magma Dragon vs Lava Dragon
X = 1.157 -> The Magma Dragon has 15.7% better stats
This is a no-brainer -> The Magma is better. Magma Shield is already way better than Liquid Flame Breath, and on top of this the Magma has better stats...
STRONGHOLD
Goblin Trapper vs Goblin Witchdoctor
X = 1.122 -> The Goblin Trapper has 12.2% better stats
Although the Trapper has 12% better stats, the Witchdoctor has +1 speed. Also they have completely different abilities, so you may base your choice on those.
Centaur Nomad vs Centaur Marauder
X = 0.92 -> the Centaur Marauder has 8.6% better stats
Well it's clear that the Marauder is better. It has higher stats and the No Melee Penalty is better than the Maneuver one... Seriously, what where Nival thinking?
Mauler vs Warmonger
X = 0.975 -> The Warmonger has 2.4% better stats
I think the Warmonger is better, but the Mauler is still pretty strong as well
Sky Daughter vs Earth Daughter
X = 0.797 -> The Earth Daughter has 25.4% better stats
I guess there's no choice here. The Earth Daughter has 25.4% better stats, +1 Speed, Hexing Attack and Swift Attack... for what? A Chain Lightning spell that you don't even have mana for, without sacrificing goblins?
Executioner vs Chieftain
X = 0.636 -> The Chieftain has 57% better stats
I guess Cleave might compensate for the lower stats, but I'd say both are useful
Foul Wyvern vs Paokai
X = 0.957 -> The Paokai has 4.4% better stats
Venom is weak, and Regeneration as well. So I'd choose the Paokai every day (not really a big difference but at least it has Scavenger)
Untamed Cyclops vs Bloodeyed Cyclops
X = 1.048 -> the Untamed Cyclops has 4.8% better stats
It's basically Evil Eye vs Crushing Blow here.